Such is the paranoia over Covid 19 that it doesn’t take a lot to raise the spectre of the dreaded “second spike”. This week we have had a flurry of 106 new cases in Beijing, reports of 147 cases in two warehouses in South Korea, 600 new cases among abbatoir workers in Germany, reports of bars closing again in Florida as reported cases rise, and three new cases in New Zealand, which had just gone 24 days without a single case.
三级成人视频If you want to look at these pieces of evidence in isolation, I am sure you can convince yourself that the second wave has arrived; that the world is being punished for its hubris in relaxing lockdowns too soon, and that we have better all scurry back indoors before the pandemic rages out of control once more.
三级成人视频Dig a little deeper, though, and something becomes apparent. All cases of ‘second spikes’ are small upticks which have occurred in countries which were most successful at containing the virus in the first place. South Korea, for example, has had 239 cases per 100,000 people, compared with 4409 in Britain. It is similar with Germany, the large European country which initially contained the virus the best. As for Florida, it was far less affected in March and April than were North-Eastern states.
三级成人视频Look around the countries and places most affected by the virus, on the other hand, and there is not the faintest sign of a second spike – in spite of lockdowns being eased.
三级成人视频Britain, Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, New York: in each case new cases continue to tail off, even though shops, schools and in many cases bars and restaurants have reopened. It adds credence to the case made by Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, and our own government’s scientific advisers who argued initially that it is futile trying to stop this virus altogether: somehow or other it will eventually manage to infect everyone who is susceptible to it, up to a point where a country or community has gained herd immunity.
You can suppress for a time by closing down the economy and forcing everyone to stay at home, but you will forever be left fire-fighting as outbreaks occur.
三级成人视频Germany, South Korea, Beijing are among those to be struggling to keep new infections on a downward curve because they have many more people who are still susceptible to the virus. By contrast, in London, where, according to antibody tests, 17 percent of the population have already had the virus, we seem to be able to get away with mass street protests without a revival in infections.
I know the government has worked on the assumption that herd immunity will not be achieved until at least 60 percent of the population have been infected. But real world evidence questions this: wherever the virus has been allowed to run out of control, from London to New York to the cruise ship the Diamond Princess it has managed to infect around a fifth of the population before dying away.
三级成人视频To put this week’s outbreaks into perspective, South Korea saw 43 new cases on Wednesday compared with over 500 a day in late March. Even with 600 abbatoir workers added to the total, new cases across Germany on Wednesday reached only 1797, less than a third of the 6000 new cases being recorded every day in late March and early April.
三级成人视频 As for countries like Britain which saw a steep second spike to begin with, we shouldn’t work ourselves into a frenzy about the threat of any kind of resurgence, especially not one sharp enough to deserve the term “second spike”.